## Course Outline

• segmentGetting Started (Don't Skip This Part)
• segmentIntroduction to Statistics: A Modeling Approach
• segmentPART I: EXPLORING VARIATION
• segmentChapter 1 - Welcome to Statistics: A Modeling Approach
• segmentChapter 2 - Understanding Data
• segmentChapter 3 - Examining Distributions
• segmentChapter 4 - Explaining Variation
• segmentPART II: MODELING VARIATION
• segmentChapter 5 - A Simple Model
• segmentChapter 6 - Quantifying Error
• segmentChapter 7 - Adding an Explanatory Variable to the Model
• segmentChapter 8 - Models with a Quantitative Explanatory Variable
• segmentPART III: EVALUATING MODELS
• segmentChapter 9 - Distributions of Estimates
• segmentChapter 10 - Confidence Intervals and Their Uses
• segmentChapter 11 - Model Comparison with the F Ratio
• segmentChapter 12 - What You Have Learned
• segmentResources

## Using the Normal Distribution to Construct a Confidence Interval

We have introduced two methods of creating sampling distributions: simulation and bootstrapping. We now will introduce one more method: modeling the sampling distribution with a mathematical probability distribution, the normal curve.

We used the normal curve back in Chapter 6 as a way to calculate probabilities in the population distribution. Not all population distributions are normal, but when they are, the normal curve gives us an easy way to calculate a probability. If we model the distribution of thumb** **length with the normal curve, we can simply use the xpnorm() function to tell us the probability of the next randomly selected individual having a Thumb length greater than 65 mm, for example.

Because of the Central Limit Theorem, the normal curve turns out to be an excellent model for a sampling distribution of means. Even if the population distribution is not normal, the sampling distribution is well modeled by the normal curve, especially when sample sizes are larger. And before we had easy access to computers, everyone used the normal model, and the Central Limit Theorem, as a way to estimate the standard error.

Here we will use some R code to fit the normal curve over the bootstrapped sampling distribution of means. As you can see, the normal curve fits pretty well.

gf_histogram(..density.. ~ mean, data = bootSDoM, fill = "darkblue") %>%
gf_dist("norm", color="darkorange", params=list(mean(bootSDoM$mean), sd(bootSDoM$mean)))

### Using the Normal Model

The logic of using the normal model is exactly the same as using a simulated or bootstrapped sampling distribution. What we are trying to find out is the range of possible population means (represented in the sampling distributions below) that could, with 95% probability, have produced the particular sample mean we observed in our study.

As before, we want to find the critical distance between the hypothesized lower bound of possible population means, and the 2.5% cutoff point above which it would be unlikely for our sample to have been drawn. Subtracting the critical distance from the sample mean will tell us exactly where the lower bound of the confidence interval is. We follow a similar method to find the upper bound.

By now we know that to find the critical distance, we can construct a third sampling distribution centered on the observed sample mean. Because this third sampling distribution is identical in shape and spread to those positioned at the lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval, we can see that the distance from its mean (60.1) to the lower and upper 2.5% of the distribution is, in fact, the critical distance.

### Using Standard Errors as the Unit

With simulated and bootstrapped sampling distributions, we literally arranged the means in order and then looked at the cutoffs at the 250th and 9,750th means to find the critical distance. With the normal distribution we must take a different approach. The normal distribution is a mathematical model, so there is nothing to count. Instead we need to calculate the two 2.5% cutoff points directly.

A rough way to do this is to use the “empirical rule,” which we first introduced in Chapter 6. We’ve reproduced the figure from Chapter 6 below.

According to the empirical rule, 95% of the area under the normal curve is within two standard deviations, plus or minus, of the mean of the distribution. So, even before we know the standard deviation of our sampling distribution (which we call the standard error), we know that the lower cutoff point is going to be approximately two standard errors below the sample mean, and the upper cutoff, two standard errors above the sample mean.

L_Ch10_UsingN_1

### Directly Calculating the Standard Error using the Central Limit Theorem

We know how wide the confidence interval will be in standard errors. But if we want to know the width of the confidence interval in millimeters, we will need to convert standard errors into millimeters. To make this conversion, we will need to know the standard error of the sampling distribution in millimeters.

The Central Limit Theorem provides a formula for calculating the standard error of a sampling distribution. Do you remember what the formula is for calculating standard error?

L_Ch10_UsingN_2

Because we don’t know what the true value of $$\sigma$$ is, we can estimate the standard error by dividing the estimated standard deviation based on our sample ($$s$$) by the square root of n (the sample size, which in this case is 157).

Use the DataCamp window below as a calculator to estimate the standard error of Fingers$$Thumb**. Note, we have written code to save the favstats of **Fingers$$Thumb in Thumb.stats.

 #load packages require(ggformula) require(mosaic) require(supernova) require(Lock5Data) require(Lock5withR) require(okcupiddata) #set up exercise Thumb.stats <- favstats(~ Thumb, data = Fingers)   Thumb.stats <- favstats(~ Thumb, data = Fingers) # estimate the standard error   Thumb.stats <- favstats(~ Thumb, data = Fingers) # estimate the standard error Thumb.stats$sd / sqrt(157)   test_output_contains("Thumb.stats$sd / sqrt(157)") test_function("sqrt") test_error() success_msg("Nice job!") 
Review the formula for standard error above if you're not sure how to calculate it
DataCamp: ch10-10

Hey, that’s very close to what we thought the standard error would be!

So now let’s go back to our original question: Given the sample mean we observed (our estimate), what is the range of possible values within which we could be 95% confident that the true population mean would lie?

L_Ch10_UsingN_3

Now, using the standard error you just calculated, figure out the approximate 95% confidence interval around the observed sample mean. Is it close to the confidence interval we got from simulation and bootstrapping (58.7 to 61.5)?

 #load packages require(ggformula) require(mosaic) require(supernova) require(Lock5Data) require(Lock5withR) require(okcupiddata) # set up exercise Thumb.stats <- favstats(~Thumb, data = Fingers)   # here we saved the standard error in SE SE <- Thumb.stats$sd / sqrt(157) # calculate the confidence interval using SE # upper bound Thumb.stats$mean + # lower bound Thumb.stats$mean -   # here we saved the standard error in SE SE <- Thumb.stats$sd / sqrt(157) # upper bound Thumb.stats$mean + 2*SE # lower bound Thumb.stats$ mean - 2*SE   test_output_contains("Thumb.stats$mean + 2*SE") test_output_contains("Thumb.stats$ mean - 2*SE") test_error() success_msg("Super!") 
Did you account for 2 standard deviations in your calculation?
DataCamp: ch10-11

The confidence interval (58.7, 61.5) is very similar to what we got from simulations and bootstrapping!

### Using R to Calculate the Confidence Interval

Although we have been focusing on the confidence interval for the mean, it is important to note that the mean is just one parameter we can estimate. Ultimately, we can create confidence intervals for all kinds of parameters, not just the mean.

As you may recall, the simplest model (what we have been calling the empty model), only estimates one parameter, the mean. Remember, we used the lm() function to fit this one parameter model to our Fingers data and then save it as Empty.model.

Empty.model <- lm(Thumb ~ NULL, data = Fingers)

We can print out the parameter estimates by just typing the name of our saved model.

Empty.model

The function confint.default() takes a model as its input, and then computes the 95% confidence intervals for the parameters of that model using the normal distribution. Try running the code below.

 #load packages require(ggformula) require(mosaic) require(supernova) require(Lock5Data) require(Lock5withR) require(okcupiddata) # set up exercise Empty.model <- lm(Thumb ~ NULL, data = Fingers)   # This calculates the confidence intervals for the parameters of this model using the normal approximation of the sampling distribution. confint.default(Empty.model)   # This calculates the confidence intervals for the parameters of this model using the normal approximation of the sampling distribution. confint.default(Empty.model)   test_function_result("confint.default") test_error() success_msg("Super!") `
Just click Run
DataCamp: ch10-12

Ta da! You might be thinking: Why didn’t they just lead with this? Why did we have to go through simulations and bootstrapping? We could have just told you about this function from the beginning. But then you wouldn’t have had the rich understanding of what these numbers meant or what this function is doing.